- Custom Vessel-Specific Forecast
- Eastern Caribbean Forecast
- Western Caribbean Forecast
- Bahamas and US Coast
- Sample SSB Audio/ Webcast Forecast
SAMPLE CUSTOM VESSEL-SPECIFIC FORECASTLet's look at the Sea Surface Currents 1st:
I'd look for a GulfStream Entry near 34-10N/76-10W.
Direction of GulfStream flow here is 045T...I suggest aiming the boat SE (135T)...but your COG (Course Over Ground) may be closer to 120T across the Stream. Stream is about 40mi wide.
After exiting GulfStream, I'd continue to a WAYPOINT near 33N/74-40W.
There's a clockwise-rotating eddy centered 32-45N/74-50W...you want to pass N&E of this , and the above WAYPOINT should do nicely.
Then turn more SSE...and enjoy a S-flowing current of up-to-2k to a WAYPOINT 31N/74W.
Weather forecast has changed some over past few days...with much more upper-air support for the ColdFRONT exiting US E Coast late Tue16...and that means much-stronger & more due-South wind late Tue16.
SW-WSW wind moderates Wed17 as ColdFRONT nearly-stalls & weakens NW of you.
You'll get another shot of W wind Thu18 when a 2nd FRONT merges with the 1st FRONT & drives the whole mess toward you.
FRONT loses upper-air support again & you see lighter W wind Fri19...then HI pressure in E US finally presses weak ColdFRONT past you about Sat20, and NE Trades establish.
ColdFRONT & associated winds Tue16-Wed17 will be MUCH stronger the farther N you lie. Therefore, your mail goal from Sun14-Tue16 should be to get as far S as possible. The last WAYPOINT I above (31N/74W) is about 280mi SSE of BeaufortNC, and it would be good if you reached this point early Tue16.
As soon as SSE-S wind is strong-enough to sail on Tue16, you can probably begin sailing on as close a reach as you can sail fast, to the ESE-SE...and continue that tactic (as close a reach as is comfortable, generally to the ESE) thru Wed17 morning.
The rest of the trip should be relatively-easy...continue ESE until you've made sufficient East-ing, then turn SSE-S for your destination.
Here's the forecast:
Sun14, morning, departing BeaufortNC: N@10 in the morning, becoming W-N under 10k...you're motoring.
Sun14 night, near GulfStream: NNW@5-10...you're motoring. SWELL 10'/12sec from ENE.
Mon15 morning, SE of GulfStream: L&V...you're motoring. SWELL 8'/10sec from ENE.
Mon15 evening, near 32N/74-30W: L&V...still motoring. SWELL 7'/9sec from ENE.
Tue16 morning, near 31N/74W: 160@5-10...still motoring, but you may want to begin motor-sailing to the SE. SWELL 6-7'/9sec form ENE.
Tue16 afternoon, near 30N/73W: 150@10 building to 15k...you're sailing ESE on a CLOSE reach. SWELL similar...wind-chop builds to 4'.
Tue16 night, near 30N/72-30W: 170@20-25G30...you're sailing ENE-ESE on as close a reach as is comfortable. SWELL may remain 6'/9sec from ENE, but wind-chop builds to 6-9' from S.
Wed17 morning, near 30N/71W: 180@20G25...you're sailing E-ESE on as close a reach as is comfortable. SWELL same. Wind-chop moderates to 6-8'.
Wed17 afternoon, near 29-45N/70-30W: clocking SW@15...you're sailing easily on a reach to the ESE. SWELL same. Wind-chop 4'.
Wed17 night, near 29-30N/69-30W: SW-clocking-WSW@15...same tactics. SWELL may become N. Wind-chop 4' from SW.
Thu18 morning, near 29N/68-30W: 260@12...you're sailing ESE on a broad reach. 5'/10sec NE swell, with 3' wind-chop from W.
Thu18 evening, near 28-30N/67-30W: 250@15-20, isolated squalls to 30k...same tactics. Same NE swell, with wind-chop building 4-6'.
Fri19, near 27-30N/66W: wind may clock W-N@10-20...you jibe & sail something SE-S. Swell 4-5'/10sec from NNE, with 3-6' wind-chop.
Sat20, near 25N/64W: NE@20-25G30, mild squalls may cause persistent 30k wind...you're sailing S (or SSE or SSW) on a broad reach. Seas 6-10'.
Sun21, near 23N/63W: ENE@20-25...same tactics. Seas 6-8'.
Mon22-Tue23 may be similar ENE@20+/-, seas 6-8'.
In summary...get as far SSE as you can (past 31N/74W if you can) before winds begin building Tue16. Then feel free to adjust your course for comfort & speed, but generally head E in the strong S winds late Tue16 into Wed17 morning...then somewhat ESE-SE later Wed17-Sat20.
Try to make nearly all of your East-ing by the time the ColdFRONT passes you Sat20.
SAMPLE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FORECASTWx Update, E Caribbean, Fri12, 9a
10p last eve ASCAT: ABCs ENE-E@14-17 / DomRep W of CaboSamana N@10-17 / E of Windwards & Leewards mostly E under 10k, but WSW E of Antigua & Barbuda.
60mi SW of Nevis clocked SW-W-N, now N@2-10, 3-4'/6-11sec / 21N/65W 300-330@5-15, 7'/6-12sec / StLucia airport variable NE-E@5-9.
Only isolated showers & mild squalls, generally moving in the direction of surface wind flow, including activity Venezuela-Bonaire...but a few more scattered squalls Leewards NW of Antigua & Montserrat, moving NE, and isolated showers Virgins & PuertoRico & DomRep, moving NE.
SE Caribbean...mild wind close to E in direction thru Sun14...rebuilding toward mid-teens from ENE Mon15 onward. NNW-N swell builds by Sun14, then decreases only gradually.
NE Caribbean...variable in Leewards today as weakening FrontalTROF makes a final penetration S&E into Leewards as expected, with a few squalls, before dissipating tonight. Hint of a RIDGE in area tomorrow-Sun14 keeps wind light & a bit variable, with a tendency to build toward 5-10k from N-NE late tomorrow-Sun14, then increase toward 10k Mon15, possibly a bit higher Leewards Tue16...LARGE NNW-N swell tomorrow-Sun14, then gradually decreasing, but not dissipating thru all of next week.
DomRep...Weak RIDGE shifts S of DomRep's N Coast today, allowing light wind to back toward W-NW...not until late Mon15 or Tue16 does mild wind return to E. N swell peaks tonight-tomorrow, then moderates gradually.
Venezuela & ABCs...moderate wind close to E in direction, with occasional squalls, especially ABCs thru Sun14, and some N swell.
Trinidad-Martinique: isolated showers & mild squalls with 5k enhanced wind mostly overnights-into-mornings, but may be more scattered ITCZ-related squalls S Part (Trinidad-Grenadines) Mon15-Tue16.
Dominica-SE Leewards: mostly dry, with only very slight chance for a few showers & mild squalls overnights-into-mornings.
C & NW Leewards: similar, but a few more scattered squalls, possibly to 20-25k today.
Virgins & PuertoRico: only a few isolated showers & mild squalls with 5k enhanced wind overnights-into-mornings.
Venezuela: isolated-to-scattered showers & mild squalls with 5-8k enhanced wind overnights-into-mornings, possibly with less coverage tomorrow night-Sun14 morning.
ABCs: similar, but probably more scattered-to-numerous squalls to 20-30k tomorrow-Sun14.
WIND (for wind in squalls see Precip):
Trinidad-StVincent: 080-110@10-14 thru Sun14; 060-080@12 building to 16k Mon15-Tue16.
StLucia-Martinique: ENE-E@5-10 today, E-ESE tomorrow, ENE@8-10 Sun14; 050-080@10 building to 13k Mon15, 13-15k Tue16.
Dominica-Guadeloupe: E-S@5 but may be variable thru tomorrow; NE-SE@5-8 Sun14; NE@5-10 building to 10k Mon15; 060@10 building to 12k Tue16.
Leewards: variable under 10k thru Sun14; N-NE@5-10 Mon15; NE@8 building to 10-12k Tue16.
Virgins & E PuertoRico: most;y N-NNE@6-10 today, 5k tomorrow, 5-8k Sun14, 7-10k Mon15; NNE-ENE Tue16.
DomRep: backing N@10 today, W-NW tomorrow-Sun14; W-N@5-10 late Sun14-Mon15; NE-SE@10 Tue16.
Venezuela: 070-110@12-15 thru tomorrow, 12k Sun14, 10k Mon15; 060@15 Mon15 night-Tue16.
ABCs: building to ENE@15 tonight-tomorrow; E@12-15 Sun14, 10k Mon15; ENE@12 Tue16.
SE Caribbean: NNW-N swell 3-4'10sec thru tomorrow; 6-7'/15sec tomorrow night-Sun14, 5' Mon15; 4'/10sec Tue16. Wind-chop component 2-4'.
NE Caribbean: NNW-N swell 6'/10sec today, building tomorrow, reaching 10'/14sec late tomorrow-Sun14, 7'/12sec Mon15; 6'/10sec Tue16. Wind-chop mostly 2'-or-less, but locally-higher in a few squalls especially NW Leewards today.
DomRep: 6'/10sec from N today; 12'/14sec tomorrow-Sun14; 9'/12sec Mon15; 6-7'/10sec from N-NNE Tue16.
Venezuela: 3-4' from various directions, including a N swell & E wind-chop thru tomorrow...the N swell builds to 6'/15sec tomorrow night-Tue16.
ABCs: similar, but 1' less N swell.
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SAMPLE BAHAMAS FORECASTWx Update, Bahamas, Sat13, 11a
10am ASCAT: C & SE Bahamas N-NE@6-12 / 70W-76W from 24N-30N NNW-NNE@10-18, highest NE / 30N-40N from 72W-75W N-NE@10-17 / 68W-72W NNW-NE@15-25.
120mi NE of T&C 330@13-19, 17'/9-17secNNE / KyW 045@16-22 / FwyRk 330@10-15 (was 15-25k NE@15-25 thru 2am) / WEnd 010-040@3-10 / Canaveral 010@10-17, 10'/7-17sec / StAug 350@10-18, 8-9'/8-17secE / Charleston 020@14-23, 6-7'/5-16sc / FryPnShl 030@14-21, 7'/6-17secE / Hatteras 010@18-23, 10'/7-16sec / ChesByEntr 000@13-18.
Isolated showers & mild squalls throughout region, but the only activity that looks significant is N of 32N in area E of 68W...and maybe some mild-moderate squalls 27N-32N E of 70W. Clear skies from GulfStream to SE US & N FL Coasts.
Today...GALE 34N/63W, with N@25-40 E of 73W from 30N-38N / W@20-30 from 24N-32N, E of 68W. S of 24N toward N Caribbean W@10-15, with N under 10k along N Caribbean where weak RIDGE lies. Bahamas to FL & entire US Coast N-NNE@10-20, highest N of Bahamas, but 20-25k NC.
Tomorrow...Sub-GALE LO shifts E of 60W along 33N...with wind similar in direction but about 5k less surrounding LO. S of 24N unchanged. Bahamas & FL & US E Coast moderates to N-NE@5-15 as RIDGE just inland along US E Coast weakens.
Mon15...Weakening LO well E of 60W near 32N...with mostly N@10-20 along 65W from 36N-24N / S of 24N W-N@5-10. Weak (wind-less) RIDGE NovaScotia...Hatteras...GulfStream off Carolinas...FL-GA border. Light S-SW wind may establish along US Coast N of Canaveral late, as RIDGE continues shifting E. Bahamas clock N-E 12k-or-less.
Tue16...Weak RIDGE 38N/65W...30N/68W...N Bahamas...FLKeys. Along 65W from Bermuda-E Caribbean NNE-ENE@10 / moving across RIDGE S&W&N of Bermuda winds clock E-S@5-15, with SE-S@10-15 Hatteras N-ward. Bahamas ESE-S@10-15. PROBLEM area is N&W of RIDGE in area S&W of Hatteras...problem is TN-KY LO trailing strong ColdFRONT into C GOMEX, with upper-level support. Large-scale lift/dynamics may support S@20-30+ from just N of Bahamas thru entire SE US, and may support wind stronger-than-forecast in Bahamas. Euro predicts 40-50k 850mb (5000') winds off Carolinas, which could easily be present at the surface in squalls near Carolinas late Tue16.
Wed17...GALE Maine...trailing STRONG & SQUALLY ColdFRONT 40N/68W...32N/74W. FRONT weakens rapidly WSW of 32N/74W...C FL, where it stalls. RIDGE 30N/65W...Nassau...S FL, with light wind. S of RIDGE ENE-SE 10k-or-less. N of RIDGE S-W winds moderate ahead of FRONT S of 32N...but build SW@25-40 (higher in squalls) N of 32N. NW of FRONT NW@5-10 S&W of CpLookout / W-N@15-25 N&E of Hatteras.
ColdFRONT weakens, with lighter wind most areas late Wed17 into Thu18 morning...but next LO moving ENE thru GreatLakes Wed17 night-Thu18 triggers 2nd ColdFRONT (a back-door FRONT), which may drive W@20-30 within 300mi of SE US Thu18...2nd FRONT merges with 1st FRONT Thu18...then drives merged FRONT to Bermuda...T&C Fri19, with entire W Atlantic seeing W-NW@20-40 (highest N of 30N Fri19...clocking with only slight moderation Sat20-Sun21.
Precip, all Bahamas: only a few isolated showers, mostly not with significant wind...chance for a few isolated squalls to 30k NW Bahamas Tue16-Wed17.
WIND (wind in squalls see Precip):
Abaco: 020@15G19 today, 10-13k tomorrow; 060@10 Mon15 morning, 100-deg later; SE-S@10-20 Tue16; variable under 10k Wed17.
Exumas: 010-020@15G20 this morning, 14k later, 12k tomorrow; 060@10 Mon15 morning; 080@13 later; 110@13-18 Tue16 morning, ESE-SSE later; E-SE@10 Wed17.
SE Bahamas: 000@14 decreasing to 10-12k today-tomorow; 030@10-13 later tomorrow, 7-10k Mon15 morning; E@12 late; 110@13-18 Tue16, 10-13k Wed17.
Abaco: SWELL peaks 15'/14sec from NE today, 12' tomorrow, 9' Mon15; 5-6'/10sec Tue16, 4-5' Wed17...wind-chop 4-6' today, 2-3' tomorrow, 2' Mon15, 3-6' Tue16, 2' Wed17.
C Bahamas: SWELL peaks 14'/14sec from NNE today, 12' tomorrow, 9' Mon15; 6'/10sec from NE Tue16, 5' Wed17...wind-chop 4-6' today, 3-4' tomorrow, 2-3' Mon15, 3-5' Tue16, 2' Wed17.
SE Bahamas: SWELL 13'/14sec from N-NNE today, 11' tomorrow; 9'/12sec from NNE Mon15; 6'/10sec Tue16, 5-6' Wed17...wind-chop 3-4' today, 2-3' late-tomorrow, 2' Mon15, 3-5' Tue16, 3' Wed17.
Mostly N winds moderate today, but seas remain too large for most tastes today. NE swell persists tomorrow...but very-light N wind which clocks NE Mon15 should allow mild motor-sailing crossings in Both directions on Both Routes.
Late Mon15-Tue16 probably better W-bound due to building E-SE winds, but uncertain due to risk for squalls Tue16.
Wed17 is moderately-high-confidence motoring opportunity with L&V winds & mild seas...but window closes sometime Thu18 as strong NW-N winds arrive with FRONT.
Next opportunity behind FRONT is W-bound with E@15-20 beginning Sat20 or Sun21, with little change early in the week of Mon22.
N ROUTE: 010@14G18/wind-chop 6' today; N@8-13/3-4' tomorrow, clocking NE tomorrow night into Mon15 morning, 100-deg later Mon15; ESE-SE@13-20 & gusty/3-7' Mon15 night, SE-S Tue16; variable under 10k/2' Wed17...isolated squalls to 30k Tue16. SWELL 14'/14sec from NE today, 11' tomorrow; 8'/12sec from NE-ENE Mon15; 5-6'/10sec Tue16, 4' Wed17.
S ROUTE: almost identical.
--C FL: N@10-15/wind-chop 4' today, 5-10k/2' tonight-Mon15 morning, E later Mon15; S-SW@20/6' Mon15 night-Tue16; variable under 10k/2' Wed17...isolated squalls to 30k Tue16. SWELL similar to N Route.
--N FL & GA: N-NNE@10-15/wind-chop 4' today; N@5-10/2' tomorrow, E under 10k tomorrow night' SE building to 10k Mon15; S-SW@20-25/6-8' Mon15 night, possibly 20-30k/7-10' Tue16; variable under 15k/4-5' Wed17...a few squalls to 30k Tue16. SWELL 9'/14sec from ENE today, 8' tomorrow, 7' late, 5'/12sec Mon15-Tue16, 2-3' Wed17.
--SC: NNE@20/wind-chop 6' decreasing to 15k/4' today; N@10/2' tomorrow; L&V tomorrow night-Mon15; S@10-20/3-6' Mon15 night; S-W@20-30/7-10' Tue16; W-NW@5-15/2-4' Wed17...scattered squalls to 40k Tue16. SWELL 13'/14sec from ENE today, 9' tomorrow; 5-6'/11sec Mon15-Tue16, 2-3' Wed17.
--NC: N-NNE@20/wind-chop 6' today, 15k/4' late; N@10/2' tomorrow morning, 5k later; becoming S@5 Mon15, 10k Mon15 night; S-W@20-35/8-13' Tue16; variable under 20k/6' Wed17...scattered squalls to 40-50k Tue16 afternoon-night. SWELL same as NC.
--Chesapeake-to-Hatteras: N@20/wind-chop 6' decreasing to 15k/4' today, 10k/2' tomorrow morning; L&V late tomorrow-Mon15; S@10 Mon15 night; SSE-SW@10 building to 20-30k/7-10' Tue16, SW-W late, NW overnight into Wed17 morning; variable under 20k/6' Wed17...scattered squalls to 40k Tue16 afternoon-night. SWELL decreases to 15'/13sec from ENE-E today, 12' tomorrow morning, 10' later, 7'/10sec Mon15, 6' Tue16, 3' from E Wed17.
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SAMPLE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FORECASTWx Update, W Caribbean, Mon8, 1p
10am ASCAT: 80W-84W from 10N-20N NNW-NNE@14-24.
BUOYs: 20N/85W 030-040@8-19, 4'/4-8secNNW / 17N/81.5W 010@15-23, 7'/5-8sec.
Isolated showers & mild squalls, but very little coverage most areas. Convergence-squalls with 5-8k enhanced wind S of a line 16N/84W...19N/88W, and similar activity within 60mi of CostaRica & W Panama. More-significant convective squalls within 60-100mi of entire ColombianCoast, along trailing FrontalTROF which continues NE-ward thru Leewards.
NW Caribbean...moderating wind thru tomorrow & continued light Wed10...rebuilding RIDGE N of area drives stronger ENE winds late Wed10-Fri12, then moderation weekend.
C Caribbean & Colombia...offshore...decreasing N-NE thru Wed10, then rebuilding. Closer to Colombia...light wind from various directions, with periods of isolated-to-scattered squalls.
SW Caribbean...Providencia-SanAndreas area...N-NE wind moderates thru Thu11, builds some thereafter, with a return of some showers/squalls by Fri12. Closer to Panama...brisk NW winds moderate gradually thru Wed10, may rebuild some from W-NW by weekend, with relatively-dry weather.
NW Caribbean: only isolated showers & mild squalls with 5-8k enhanced wind, with greatest coverage S of 18N thru tomorrow & again Fri12 / Mexico as winds build Wed10.
Nicaragua: mostly dry thru Thu11; scattered showers & mild squalls thereafter.
W Panama: scattered coastal-convergence showers & mild squalls with 5k enhanced wind thru Wed10, maybe drier thereafter.
E Panama: only isolated showers & squalls to 20-30k, but little coverage.
Colombia: periods of showers & squalls to 20-30k, but may be less coverage tomorrow-Thu11, if FrontalTROF lifts N a bit off the Coast.
WIND (for wind in squalls see Precip):
Mexico: N-NE@15 moderating to 10k today, 5-10k tonight into tomorrow; 070@10 late tomorrow-Wed10, 16k later Wed10, 18k Thu11; 060@16 Fri12.
Belize/Honduras, offshore: mostly N@15G20 today; N-NE@10 tomorow, NE-E Wed10 into Thu11 morning; ENE@15-20 later Thu11-Fri12.
SW Corner of NW Caribbean (including BayIslandsHonduras): mostly W@15 today, 5-10k tonight-tomorrow; variable under 10k later tomorrow-Thu11; variable@10-15 Thu11 night-Fri12.
Nicaragua: N@20-25 decreasing to 20k today, 15-18k tomorrow; NNE@12 Wed10, 6-10k Thu11; N@15-20 Fri12.
W Panama: NW@15-20 today, 15k moderating to 10k tomorrow; W-NW 10k-or-less Wed10-Fri12.
E Panama: NNW@15-20 today, 10-15k tomorrow; W-NW@10 thereafter.
Colombia, 12N/75W: variable mostly 10k-or-less, may tend to be N thru tomorrow, ENE Wed10, N Thu11, W Fri12.
Just SW of Cartagena: NW@15 today; SW-NW near 10k hereafter.
NW Caribbean: decreasing from 4-8'/6-7sec from N-NE today; 3-5'/6sec from NE tomorrow, 2-4'/5sec from ENE Wed10; 5-8'/6-7sec Thu11-Fri12...highest S of 18N.
SW Caribbean: decreasing from 9'/8sec from N today to 6'/7sec tomorrow, 3'/5sec Wed10, 2-3' Thu11; 3'/6sec from NNE Fri12. Coastal E Panama: subtract 1'. Colombia 12N/75W: 7'/8sec from NNW today; 4-5'/6sec from N tomorrow; 3'/5sec from N-NE thereafter. W of 81W: 9'/7sec from N today; 6'/6-7sec tomorow; 3-4'/5-6sec from NNE Wed10-Th11; 4'/6sec from NNE Fri12.
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