TODAY'S MARINE FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN

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How to read: Forecast is for the Eastern Caribbean, with emphasis on the British Virgin Islands.  Wind forecast includes Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands (Anguilla to Dominica) and Windward Islands (Martinique to Grenada).  Wind direction and speed are given as a compass direction, in degrees True (090 is East), "@" sign, followed by a number designating the average sustained wind speed forecast.  Forecast should be "bracketed" by you...for example, a forecast for 090@16 means you should expect sustained winds between 080-100 at between 14-18 kts.

Wx Update, E Caribbean, Thu15, 6a

7pm QuickScat: ABCs 070-080@13-20 / Venezuela 060-090@11-19 / SE Caribbean 080-110@13-19 / Leewards 110-140@5-11 / VirginIslands & S Coast PuertoRico light & variable / N Coast PuertoRico W-N@5-8 / E DomRep NE-S under 10k / W of CaboSamana 020-030@12-15. ColdFRONT at CaboSamana.

IMAGERY:
Mild scattered showers Leewards, lifting NW-N...and near & SE of StCroix, stationary. Line of showers & squalls from NE tip DomRep NE-ward, passing just N of NW PuertoRico, but nothing in excess of 30k SW of 23N/61W...with severe squalls NE of that.

WAVEs:
NOAA identifies WAVE 64W-65W, near squalls well inland over Venezuela. I identify WAVE near impressive dynamics (20k upper-divergence / 15k surface convergence / low-level vorticity (spin)), and developing squalls, 10N/56W...8N/60W. Should pass thru Trinidad tonight into tomorrow.

Next WAVE is stronger & passes Trinidad area Sun18 night & Mon19.

SYNOPSIS:
ColdFRONT continues S&E to along PuertoRico's N Coast today, probably stalling & dissipating near NE PuertoRico-VirginIslands tonight, with continuing light winds throughout E Caribbean, with 2 exceptions...DomRep & NW PuertoRico see moderate N-E winds behind FRONT today & tomorrow...and Trinidad sees weak TropicalWAVE tonight into tomorrow.

Tomorrow onward...weak HI 30N/74W today flattens into E-W-RIDGE at 25N-26N tomorrow, supporting gradually-rebuilding E Trades most areas. ColdFRONTs in Atlantic press RIDGE to 22N over weekend, allowing N Caribbean winds to moderate - but S Caribbean Trades continue increasing.

WAVE passing Trinidad Sun18 night into Mon19 & ABCs Tue20 supports some additional wind, even as RIDGE lifts N toward 25N by middle of next week. Along N Caribbean, Trades increase next week as RIDGE moves away, possibly to the 15-20k range mid-week.

OUTLOOK...Azores-Bermuda RIDGE weakens 2nd half of next week, probably allowing Trades to moderate throughout.

SUGGESTIONS...
Vessels who have waited patiently to move from E Caribbean W-NW to Bahamas with sufficient wind to sail may be rewarded with nice E-ESE@15-20 Trades & settled weather with no N swell Tue20-Thu22.
Vessels desiring mild weather along S Caribbean should move quickly, as Trades rebuild toward 20k Sat17.
Vessels desiring mild weather NE Caribbean must deal with NNW-N swells next couple days- or deal with much stronger E Trades next week.

F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad: scattered squalls to 30k-or-so tonight into tomorrow morning, and probably lingering thru Sat17. Squalls should end late Sat17...then redevelop Sun18 night, with widespread & strong squalls Mon19. SUGGEST VESSELS UNDERWAY FOR TRINIDAD MAKE ARRIVAL AT TRINIDAD ANYTIME SUN18 to avoid squalls.
Windwards: most see only isolated morning showers & mild squalls with not more than 5-8k enhanced wind. However, near Grenada a few more-significant squalls are possible tomorrow & Sat17 & Mon19.
Leewards & VirginIslands: isolated morning showers & mild squalls with not more than 5-8k enhanced wind.
PuertoRico: similar, but more coverage of showers & squalls to 20-25k thru tomorrow near FRONT.
DomRep: scattered showers & squalls to 20-30k thru tonight, decreasing tomorrow.
Venezuela, near 12N: little-or-no significant activity. Near COAST, including Margarita: periods of showers & squalls tomorrow afternoon & Sat17 afternoon & Mon19 thru Tue20.
ABCs: showers & squalls possible Tue20.

WIND:
Windwards (and waters toward Trinidad): 090@14 today; 080@15 tomorow, 16k Sat17; 060@17 Sun18, 20k & gusty Sun18 night; 080@20 Mon19, 18k late.
Leewards: SE@5-10 today, possibly light & variable NW Part. ENE-E@7-10 tonight; E@10 tomorrow; 100@12 tomorrow night & Sat17; 090@15 Sun18 morning, 17k afternoon; 080@18 Mon19.
VirginIslands: S@5-10-or-light & variable today; ENE@7-10 tonihgt; E@10 tomorrow; 120@11 Sat17; 110@13 Sun18 morning, 15k late; 080@17 Mon19.
DomRep & NW PuertoRico: NE@15 today; E@10-15 tomorrow; SE@8-10 Sat17, 10k Sun18; ESE@10 building E@15 Mon19.
Venezuela: 090@16 today, 15k tomorrow; 080@15 Sat17 morning, 19k Sat17 night onward...NIGHTs add 2k unless specified.
ABCs: 100@17 today & tonight, 18k tomorrow; 090@20 Sat17 onward.

SEAS:
SE Caribbean: 5-6'/8-sec from E today & tomorrow, 6'/7-sec Sat17 into Sun18; 8' Sun18 night & Mon19. N swell develops today, builds to 5'/11-sec tomorrow thru weekend.
NE Caribbean: 4-5'/7-sec from E thru Sat17; 5'/5-sec Sun18; 5-6' Mon19. Swell 6'/11-sec from NNW today & tomorrow, from N Sat17; 5' Sun18.
DomRep: N swell increases to 8'/11-sec today & persists tomorrow; 5' Sat17, 4' from NNE Sun18, dissipating. 3'/4-sec from E Mon19.
Venezuela: 4-5'/5-sec from E today, 5' tomorrow & Sat17; 6'/5-6 sec Sun18 & Mon19. Any N swell should not exceed 5' tomorrow onward.
ABCs: 5'/5-sec from E today, 5-6' tomorrow, 6'/5-6 sec Sat17 onward.
 

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