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How to read: Forecast is for the Eastern Caribbean, with emphasis on the British Virgin
Islands. Wind forecast includes Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands (Anguilla to Dominica) and Windward Islands (Martinique to Grenada).
Wind direction and speed are given as a compass
direction, in degrees True (090 is East), "@" sign, followed by a number
designating the average sustained wind speed forecast. Forecast should be
"bracketed" by you...for example, a forecast for 090@16
means you should expect sustained winds between 080-100 at between 14-18 kts.
--During past 12hr/previous 12hr, Earl moved 3.2/3.0 deg N Lat; 0.5/1.4 deg W
Lon; wind decreased 25k/increased 10k; pressure rose 19mb/fell 13mb.
--Earl weakened considerably this afternoon...his eye has now completely filled
with clouds...and previously-deep convection surrounding his center is only
moderately-deep.
--Earl has clearly made it to the N side of the sub-Tropical RIDGE, and the
environment here is more-destructive than expected. While Earl may only weaken
gradually going forward, it's possible he may be only a very weak Cat1 Hurricane
as he makes his closest approach to SE NewEngland tomorrow night.
--I disagree with NOAA's 5pm position...I'm not sure how they arrived at the
position, as Earl's center has been visible on MooreheadCityNC RADAR...using
RADAR & satellite imagery, I analyze a current location at 7:30p of 33.1N/74.6W,
with a very-slightly-E-of-N-motion. Based on satellite imagery, I estimate
NOAA's 5pm position was about 15mi too-far-West.
--All of the above is REALLY GOOD NEWS for the entire US E Coast.
--It seems likely Earl's sustained Hurricane Force wind will remain offshore of
the Hatteras/OuterBanksNC area.
--Models shifted just a bit S&E off SE NewEngland, with the consensus almost
back to 40N/70W. Earl is likely to pass closer to extreme SE NewEngland
(Nantucket area) than to Hatteras...but he'll be a somewhat-weaker system...and,
with the E-of-N-turn now well underway, I think we can say most of SE NewEngland
(including RhodeIsland) is at a lower risk than it appeared this morning
(probably back to a 1-in-5-chance of a direct hit from Earl's eyewall)...while
Nantucket area may still be at 1-in-3-chance.
--Given the likelihood Earl will be weaker than expected...and the decent chance
he'll pass a bit farther S&E of most of NewEngland than expected...I suggest
vessels DECREASE my forecast wind speeds along the entire Coast by 10k from this
morning's forecast...and surge by up-to-1' from this morning's forecast.
--I do NOT mean to minimize the impact Earl could have on the region...he may
still cause considerable damage to unprepared interests...so do be prepared!
A couple BUOY observations:
Hatteras 060@25G35, 19'/10-15sec
FryPnShl 360@30G41, 13'/17sec SE swell, with 14'/7sec N wind-chop
Charleston 320@17G29, 13'/16sec, with nasty wind-chop from NW
--During past 12hr/previous 12hr, Fiona moved 3.0/2.4 deg N Lat; 1.0/2.5 deg W
Lon; wind unchanged/decreased 5k; pressure rose 2mb/rose 3mb.
--Even though the numbers suggest Fiona is weak, she's generating MUCH
taller/colder cloud-top convection than Earl! She's a fighter, and should
continue gradually turning N then NE, passing near Bermuda about Sat4, probably
as a Tropical Storm.
--Previous discussion unchanged.
* *
Gaston has dissipated into a remnant LO at 5p....located 13.5N/39.5W, moving
270T@4k, wind 25k, gusting 35k, pressure 1009mb.
--Convection near Gaston's center dissipated today, and, with the LO so weak, it
no longer qualifies as a TropicalDepression...remnant LO will drift W-ward in a
hostile environment thru tomorrow...but environment may become supportive
thereafter...and Gaston could re-form Sat4 onward...if so, he could arrive in E
Caribbean about Tue7, probably somewhere from Martinique N-ward...possibly as a
Hurricane. We will need to monitor this area closely for signs of redevelopment.
If redevelopment does occur, I see no reason why our previous discussions would
not be relevant.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Wx Update, E Caribbean, Thu2, noon
10p last eve ASCAT: Venezuela E of 65W thru Grenadines E@12-16 /
Grenada-Trinidad ESE@10 / StVincent-SE Leewards ENE-ESE@5-12 / rest of Leewards
SE-S@7-12 / VirginIslands & E PuertoRico variable S-W@5-15, highest N.
BUOYs:
60mi SW of Nevis variable mostly under 8k, currently 190@5-9/4'/6-12sec. 21N/65W
150@8-13, 11'/7-12sec. StLucia airport 070@16-20.
IMAGERY:
Squalls near Fiona's circulation lie N of 22N...but TROF-like band of showers &
a few mild squalls trails S-ward thru VirginIslands & E half of PuertoRico...enhanced
squalls extend S-SSW to just N&E of ABCs...then trail E-ESE along all of
Venezuela S of 13N...across Grenadines & Grenada & Trinidad & Tobago E-ward
along 9N-12N, all activity S of 15N is moving W-WSW, fairly-rapidly, in the
brisk ENE surface flow.
TROPICS:
No worries in the short-term...monitor Gaston - he could impact parts of E
Caribbean as early as Tue7, but may not. Monitor next potential system a few
days after Gaston.
SYNOPSIS:
SE Caribbean...brisk ENE Trades may even be stronger than expected today...but
should be quite mild tomorow onward, though some squalls may occur anytime.
NE Caribbean...winds back toward E today, ENE tonight onward & run close to
15k-or-so...moderating some late tomorrow-Sat4, moderating further Sun5, then
rebuilding to Sat4's levels Mon6.
DomRep...moderate mostly SE-S into tomorrow...backing ESE & moderating slightly
late tomorrow, with little change thereafter, but occasional squalls.
Venezuela & ABCs...brisk E Trades thru tomorrow...lighter Sat4-Sun5...rebuilding
Mon6.
F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad-Grenadines: isolated-to-scattered showers & squalls to 20-30k thru
tomorrow morning...shifting N of Grenada tomorrow-Sat4 morning, with only
isolated milder activity otherwise.
StVincent-Martinique: isolated showes & a few squalls to 20-25k late tonight
thru Sun5 morning, otherwise little activity.
Dominica-Leewards: mostly dry, with only slight risk for a shower or mild squall
to 20k.
Virgins & PuertoRico: similar, but maybe a bit more coverage today & Sat4 night
into Sun5 morning.
DomRep: isolated showers & mild squalls to 20-25k anytime, but maybe a bit more
coverage Sat4-Sun5.
Venezuela: isolated showers & a few squalls possibly to 20-30k today & Sun4,
less coverage otherwise.
WIND (for wind in squalls see Precip:
Trinidad-StLucia: 070-090@15G20 today; 060-080@7-10 tomorrow-Mon6.
Martinique-Guadeloupe: 090@16G20 today; 070-deg tonight; 060-070@15G18 tomorrow,
13k Sat4 morning; 060-090@8-10 later Sat4-Sun5, 10k Mon6, 14k late.
Rest of Leewards: ESE-SE@12 today; 070@16G20 tonight into tomorrow; 060@15
tomorrow night-Sat4; 090@8-10 Sun5 into Mon6; 060@13 later.
Virgins & E PuertoRico: variable backing toward SE@10 today; 090@13 tonight into
tomorrow; 060@14 tomorrow night, 12k moderating to 10k Sat4; 045-070@Sun5-Mon6.
DomRep: SE-S@10-14 today; SE@10 tomorrow morning, ESE late; E-ESE@10 thereafter.
Venezuela: 100@17G21 today, 080-deg tonight-tomorrow morning, 13k later
tomorrow; 060-080@7-10 Sat4, 10-13k Sun5-Mon6.
ABCs: 110@17G22 today, 18G24k tonight, 16G21k tomorrow; becoming 090@10-12
Sat4-Sun5, 13-15k Mon6.
SEAS:
SE Caribbean: 5'/8sec from ENE-E thru tomorrow, 4' thereafter...wind-chop
component may run 4-6' today, 2-4' tomorrow, 2-3' thereafter.
NE Caribbean: 6-7'/8-9sec from NNE & ENE today, 5' tomorrow, 4-5' thereafter,
but may be from N Mon6...wind-chop 4-6' thru tomorrow, 3-4' Sat4, 2-3'
thereafter.
DomRep: 6-7'/9sec from NNE & ENE today, 5' tomorrow, 4' from N & E thereafter,
maybe 3' Mon6.
Venezuela: 5-6'/4-5sec from E today, 4' tomorow; 3'/4-8sec from NNE & E
thereafter.
ABCs: 6-7'/5sec from E thru tomorow, 4' from ENE-E Sat4 onward.
--Earl seems to be making an "asymptotic" approach to 75W Lon...unless there's a
significant wobble W-ward, or something very unexpected, Earl should not get
very far W of 75W (if at all) before beginning a slight E-of-N-motion by
evening, N of axis of sub-Tropical RIDGE.
--While this is tentatively very good news for NorthCarolina...IT REMAINS WAY
TOO EARLY to dismiss/lower the 1-in-4-chance of a direct hit of Earl's eyewall
in some part of NC OuterBanks.
--Interim Tropical from earlier this morning remains valid!
* *
--In other news, at 11am...
--T.S. Fiona...models coming into better agreement on the most-likely-scenario
laid-out in this morning's Interim Tropical (N-NE turn making closest approach
to Bermuda over weekend, then accelerating NE...but shear may be higher in this
direction, which could cause dissipation prior to reaching Bermuda area).
--Gaston downgraded to TropicalDepression...not surprising due to expected shear
& dry air...Gaston likely to survive this...and this morning's Interim Tropical
remains valid...cheers...Chris.
--During last 12hr/previous 12hr, Earl moved 3.0/2.3 deg N Lat; 1.4/2.1 deg W
Lon; wind increased 10k/5k; pressure fell 13mb/unchanged.
INTENSITY:
--Earl strengthened overnight, 25-mi-diameter eye cleared, surrounded by thick &
tall wall of convection. Latest satellite imagery shows eye a bit-less-clear,
and surrounding convection less impressive...Earl has probably peaked in
intensity...but should remain close to current strength until after closest
approach to NC OuterBanks overnight tonight.
--Thereafter...Earl should weaken...gradually at first, as forward acceleration
toward NE helps maintain wind in right-front quadrant...but wind-shear & cooler
sea temps should allow weakening to 80-100k sustained (gusting higher) Cat2-Cat3
by time Earl makes closest approach to SE NewEngland overnight Fri3 night...and
to 65-80k sustained (gusting higher) at final landfall in
NovaScotia-NewBrunswick-E Maine Sat4.
TRACK:
--At 8a, Earl's position updated to 30.1N/74.8W.
--Models agree Earl moves mostly N today, along about 75W to about 33N...but any
additional W-of-N-motion bringing Earl W of 75W will cause him to track
close-to-or-possibly-over parts of Eastern NC (OuterBanks). Earl would need to
pass more than 60mi offshore to avoid HurricaneForce wind to parts of
OuterBanks.
--Models agree E-of-N-motion begins 33N-34N, then Earl accelerates NE-ward
toward SE NewEngland.
--Models mostly shifted back to merging Earl with the Synoptic LO over NE Canada
(NE Quebec-Labrador-Newfoundland) Sat4 night-Sun5...very few models predict
continuing NE-ENE motion taking Earl along the long axis of NovaScotia or
missing landfall altogether.
--Some models initiate the gradual N-ward turn into Canada early Sat4...some
early-enough to pull Earl into Coastal areas of Eastern NewEngland.
--Over past 4-5 days, I've been watching 3 points to assess risk: 35N/75W &
40N/70W & 45N/65W. Previously, nearly all models were S&E of all 3 points.
This morning...nearly all models remain near-or-S&E of 35N/75W.
Most models are N&W of 40N/70W.
Virtually all models are N&W of 45N/65W.
--REGARDLESS of path of Earl's center, ENTIRE Coast of US from CpFearNC to
Maine-NewBrunswick-most of NovaScotia are VERY LIKELY to see sustained
TropicalStormForce wind, especially from E-backing-N-backing-NW. Areas
close-enough to Earl to see squalls get stronger TropicalStormForce wind, maybe
with some gusts to HurricaneForce. Only those within about 60-80mi N of and/or
40-60mi W of Earl's center should see sustained HurricaneForce wind.
--Earl's very strongest wind & huge surge should impact those along & within the
eyewall. Surge may also impact those in areas where wind-blown water builds-up &
lacks an easy egress into deep water.
--TIMING & RISK ASSESSMENT changed some this morning:
--Hatteras & NC OuterBanks: tonight...1-in-4-chance of eyewall hit /
1-in-4-chance sustained HurricaneForce wind FAILS to impact area / thus
50-50-chance we see sustained HurricaneForce wind, but not strongest wind of the
eye.
--NC, W of CpLookout: late afternoon-tonight...Only TropicalStormForce wind from
NE-N-NW.
--VA-Chesapeake-DelMarVa-NJ-NYCity & most of LongIsland: tomorrow...Only
TropicalStormForce wind from ENE or NE-N-NW.
--SE NewEngland: tomorrow night...1-in-3-chance direct hit from eyewall /
50-50-chance sustained HurricaneForce wind, at-least in extreme SE Part
(Nantucket area) & possibly throughout SE Mass & RI.
--E half of Maine & NewBrunswick & NovaScotia: Sat4...landfall is
almost-certain, with equal chance in any of these 3 areas (NewBrunswick has the
smallest shoreline, and the highest probability-per-mile-of-shoreline).
--During past 12hr/previous 12hr, Fiona moved 2.4/2.8 deg N Lat; 2.5/2.7 deg W
Lon; wind decreased 5k/increased 10k; pressure rose 3mb/fell 7mb.
--Fiona continues pulsing strong convection, but it's not sustained.
--Still not sure what happens with Fiona...
--Highest probability is Fiona remains a distinct LO - probably a Tropical
Storm, not a Hurricane - and turns N then NE toward Bermuda (closest approach
over weekend)...then accelerates NE-ward.
--Next-most-likely is Fiona dissipates into a large area of squally, disturbed
weather within 300mi of Bermuda, possibly along a band spiraling outward from
Earl, and maybe merging with ColdFRONT off US E Coast after Sun5.
--Slight chance Fiona remains an intact LO & persists S of rebuilding
Azores-Bermuda RIDGE, lingering somewhere S&W of Bermuda thru weekend, then
possibly moving SW-W toward Bahamas or some part of US Coast. Only very SLIGHT
chance of this past scenario.
--During past 12hr, Gaston moved 0.6 deg N Lat; 1.2 deg W Lon; wind & pressure
unchanged.
--Models in good agreement Gaston struggles with shear & dry air into tomorrow,
probably slowing his forward motion even more, as steering currents collapse.
After tomorrow, however, sub-Tropical RIDGE rebuilds N of Gaston...allowing him
to strengthen & begin moving a bit faster, probably due-W (maybe even WSW).
--GFS & most Tropical models move Earl thru NE Caribbean, probably somewhere N
of Martinique thru Leewards/Virgins/PuertoRico, Tue7-Wed8, as a Hurricane,
possibly a strong Hurricane.
--However, most Global models move Earl more-slowly...keeping him E of 50W thru
Tue7.
--At some point next week, another TROF weakens RIDGE...causing Gaston to
slow-down & possibly drift N...thereafter, Gaston could either accelerate N & NE
past the Bermuda area & off into the North-Central Atlantic...or he may be
driven back to the W-NW as RIDGE rebuilds...bringing Gaston to some parts of
Caribbean / Bahamas / US Coast about 2 weeks from now.
* *
--A vigorous WAVE exiting Africa may be our next Tropical LO in a few days, E of
Gaston.
* *
--Weak WAVE W Colombia-E Panama will move to W Panama tomorrow, with some
squalls & period of increasing S-component wind, but NO Tropical LO formation.
