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How to read: Forecast is for the Eastern Caribbean, with emphasis on the British Virgin
Islands. Wind forecast includes Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands (Anguilla to Dominica) and Windward Islands (Martinique to Grenada).
Wind direction and speed are given as a compass
direction, in degrees True (090 is East), "@" sign, followed by a number
designating the average sustained wind speed forecast. Forecast should be
"bracketed" by you...for example, a forecast for 090@16
means you should expect sustained winds between 080-100 at between 14-18 kts.
7pm QuickScat: ABCs 070-080@13-20 / Venezuela 060-090@11-19 / SE Caribbean
080-110@13-19 / Leewards 110-140@5-11 / VirginIslands & S Coast PuertoRico light
& variable / N Coast PuertoRico W-N@5-8 / E DomRep NE-S under 10k / W of
CaboSamana 020-030@12-15. ColdFRONT at CaboSamana.
IMAGERY:
Mild scattered showers Leewards, lifting NW-N...and near & SE of StCroix,
stationary. Line of showers & squalls from NE tip DomRep NE-ward, passing just N
of NW PuertoRico, but nothing in excess of 30k SW of 23N/61W...with severe
squalls NE of that.
WAVEs:
NOAA identifies WAVE 64W-65W, near squalls well inland over Venezuela. I
identify WAVE near impressive dynamics (20k upper-divergence / 15k surface
convergence / low-level vorticity (spin)), and developing squalls,
10N/56W...8N/60W. Should pass thru Trinidad tonight into tomorrow.
Next WAVE is stronger & passes Trinidad area Sun18 night & Mon19.
SYNOPSIS:
ColdFRONT continues S&E to along PuertoRico's N Coast today, probably stalling &
dissipating near NE PuertoRico-VirginIslands tonight, with continuing light
winds throughout E Caribbean, with 2 exceptions...DomRep & NW PuertoRico see
moderate N-E winds behind FRONT today & tomorrow...and Trinidad sees weak
TropicalWAVE tonight into tomorrow.
Tomorrow onward...weak HI 30N/74W today flattens into E-W-RIDGE at 25N-26N
tomorrow, supporting gradually-rebuilding E Trades most areas. ColdFRONTs in
Atlantic press RIDGE to 22N over weekend, allowing N Caribbean winds to moderate
- but S Caribbean Trades continue increasing.
WAVE passing Trinidad Sun18 night into Mon19 & ABCs Tue20 supports some
additional wind, even as RIDGE lifts N toward 25N by middle of next week. Along
N Caribbean, Trades increase next week as RIDGE moves away, possibly to the
15-20k range mid-week.
OUTLOOK...Azores-Bermuda RIDGE weakens 2nd half of next week, probably allowing
Trades to moderate throughout.
SUGGESTIONS...
Vessels who have waited patiently to move from E Caribbean W-NW to Bahamas with
sufficient wind to sail may be rewarded with nice E-ESE@15-20 Trades & settled
weather with no N swell Tue20-Thu22.
Vessels desiring mild weather along S Caribbean should move quickly, as Trades
rebuild toward 20k Sat17.
Vessels desiring mild weather NE Caribbean must deal with NNW-N swells next
couple days- or deal with much stronger E Trades next week.
F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad: scattered squalls to 30k-or-so tonight into tomorrow morning, and
probably lingering thru Sat17. Squalls should end late Sat17...then redevelop
Sun18 night, with widespread & strong squalls Mon19. SUGGEST VESSELS UNDERWAY
FOR TRINIDAD MAKE ARRIVAL AT TRINIDAD ANYTIME SUN18 to avoid squalls.
Windwards: most see only isolated morning showers & mild squalls with not more
than 5-8k enhanced wind. However, near Grenada a few more-significant squalls
are possible tomorrow & Sat17 & Mon19.
Leewards & VirginIslands: isolated morning showers & mild squalls with not more
than 5-8k enhanced wind.
PuertoRico: similar, but more coverage of showers & squalls to 20-25k thru
tomorrow near FRONT.
DomRep: scattered showers & squalls to 20-30k thru tonight, decreasing tomorrow.
Venezuela, near 12N: little-or-no significant activity. Near COAST, including
Margarita: periods of showers & squalls tomorrow afternoon & Sat17 afternoon &
Mon19 thru Tue20.
ABCs: showers & squalls possible Tue20.
SEAS:
SE Caribbean: 5-6'/8-sec from E today & tomorrow, 6'/7-sec Sat17 into Sun18; 8'
Sun18 night & Mon19. N swell develops today, builds to 5'/11-sec tomorrow thru
weekend.
NE Caribbean: 4-5'/7-sec from E thru Sat17; 5'/5-sec Sun18; 5-6' Mon19. Swell
6'/11-sec from NNW today & tomorrow, from N Sat17; 5' Sun18.
DomRep: N swell increases to 8'/11-sec today & persists tomorrow; 5' Sat17, 4'
from NNE Sun18, dissipating. 3'/4-sec from E Mon19.
Venezuela: 4-5'/5-sec from E today, 5' tomorrow & Sat17; 6'/5-6 sec Sun18 &
Mon19. Any N swell should not exceed 5' tomorrow onward.
ABCs: 5'/5-sec from E today, 5-6' tomorrow, 6'/5-6 sec Sat17 onward.