LATEST TROPICAL WX UPDATE AND FORECAST FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS & NE CARIBBEAN
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Wx Update, E Caribbean, Thu2, 10a
5am gridded QuickScat: 200mi E of SE Caribbean 060@20-24 / 200mi E of Leewards
080@15-20 / squalls with WAVE just E of 50W 30-50k. Graphical data ABCs &
Venezuela W of 66W E@18-25 / DomRep ESE@10-18.
IMAGERY:
Only isolated showers & squalls throughout E Caribbean...decreasing in coverage
with daytime heating.
SYNOPSIS:
WAVEs:
Again, major disagreement with NOAA on WAVE location...
NOAA's WAVE 39W...based on UofWisc vorticity analysis & QuickScat date & infared
satellite imagery, I place at 12N/50W...5N/55W, moving W@15-20, should bring
squalls to 40k to SE Caribbean tonight & tomorrow, with a temporary ENE-ESE
wind-direction shift, and a 5k increase in sustained wind.
NOAA's WAVE 24W...based on same inputs, I place at 30W, S of 20N, moving W@20,
should race toward E Caribbean, arriving as a NW-SE-oriented feature bringing
squalls to NE Caribbean Sat4 / DomRep & SE Caribbean Sun5...along with ENE-ESE
wind direction shift & 5k increase in sustained wind.
Subsequent WAVEs...Weak WAVE may pass about Wed8, but may not cause much
significant weather. WAVE may pass about Sun12, but may pass N of NE Caribbean,
thus fail to have significant impact on E Caribbean. WAVE Wed15 may have more
impact on E Caribbean.
IN GENERAL...
As long as WAVEs continue to race across Tropical Atlantic, carried by strong
Trades, they're likely to have difficulty forming any sort of sustained surface
LO...so risk for Tropical LO seems small for as long as the current pattern of
brisk Trades persists.
MEANWHILE...
Sub-Tropical Atlantic RIDGE peaks tomorrow, coinciding with strongest gradient
wind most of E Caribbean. Thereafter, RIDGE weakens each day thru next
week...but pressures over S America fall thru Sun5, limiting magnitude of
decrease in Trades till Mon6 onward. High winds & seas & strong squalls are
mostly associated with WAVEs tonight thru tomorrow & over weekend...but most
areas see a nice 24-hr break with moderation between WAVEs.
OUTLOOK:
I'm more-positive about next week...Mon6 is a transition day, with decreasing
Trades & seas. Tue7 looks terrific, with mild wind & seas. Wed8 may be just as
good as Tue7...unless a weak WAVE brings squalls.
EXCEPTIONS:
W Venezuela & ABCs see persistently-strong conditions, except for a 1-day break
Sun5.
F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad area: periods of showers & squalls, some to 30-35k, with greatest
coverage tomorrow, less coverage Sat4, then more & stronger 40k squalls Sun5
into Mon6.
Windwards: isolated showers & squalls to 30k today; more scattered squalls to
35k after midnight tonight thru mid-day tomorrow; returning to isolated squalls
to 30k tomorrow night & Sat4; more scattered squalls to 40k Sun5 morning, then
probably mostly dry.
Leewards: isolated mostly-morning showers & squalls to 30k thru tomorrow;
increasing coverage of squalls Sat4, with numerous squalls to 40k Sat4 night,
ending Sun5 morning, then mostly dry.
VirginIslands & DomRep: mostly dry today; scattered squalls to 35k tomorrow;
isolated activity Sat4; more scattered squalls to 30-40k Sat4 night & Sun5, then
mostly dry.
DomRep: only isolated squalls to 30k thru tomorrow; a few scattered 35k squalls
tomorrow night into Sat4 morning, then mostly dry again...till more squalls
appear Sun5 afternoon into Mon6.
Venezuela: mostly overnight-into-morning showers & squalls, some to 30-35k, thru
Mon6, with more coverage E of 65W thru Sun5.
ABCs: similar, but more coverage early Sat4.
WIND (for wind in squalls see Precip):
Windwards (waters toward Trinidad subtract 3-4k thru Sat4, then subtract only
1-2k): 080@17 today; backing 060@22G26 late afternoon or evening; 110@24G30
tomorrow morning; 070@19 late; 070@15 Sat4; 100@21G26 Sat4 night into Sun5;
070@19G23 Mon6.
Leewards: 080@16 today; 070@22G27 tonight into tomorrow; 100@18 later tomorrow;
060@24G30 tomorrow night & Sat4; 120@22G27 Sun5 morning; 080@19 late, 17k Mon6.
VirginIslands: 100@14 today; 080@19G23 tonight, 080-1000-deg tomorrow; 080@20G24
tomorrow night into Sat4; 070@23G28 later Sat4; 130-deg Sun5; 090@18 Sun5 night,
17k Mon6.
DomRep: ESE@14 today into tomorrow morning, 18k tomorrow afternoon, 15k Sat4,
18k Sun5, 20k Mon6 morning, 15k afternoon.
Venezuela: 090@20G24 today, 21G25k tomorrow; 080@15-20 Sat4; 100@17-20 Sun5,
21G26k Sun5 night into Mon6 morning; 090@19G23 Mon6...S of 11N may run as much
as 3-5k less.
ABCs: 100@22G27 today, 090-deg tomorrow; 100@25-30 Sat4 morning, 18k late into
Sun5 morning; 110@25-30 Sun5 night, 23G28k Mon6.
* * * * *
From the Univ of the West Indies, Seismic
Research Centre:
On Thursday 2nd July at 7:03a.m.local time [a minor] earthquake occurred south
of Nevis. The event was located at 16.93°N 62.60°W. The magnitude was 3.7 and
depth was 23 km. The event was reported as felt in Montserrat. No damage was
reported.
If you felt this earthquake please email details of your experience to:
earthquakes@uwiseismic.com
* * * * *
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