LATEST TROPICAL WX UPDATE AND FORECAST FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS & NE CARIBBEAN
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Wx Update, E Caribbean, Tue9, 10a
Last eve ASCAT: Venezuela E of 67W ENE@12-19, strongest N of Tortuga / near 62W
E-ESE@13-17 / W of Windwards ESE@15 / along 63W from 14N-15N ENE-E@5-10 / N of
15N thru AnegadaPassage & Virgins NE@15-20 / PuertoRico NNE-ENE@10-20 / S of
PuertoRico is a band of NE@20-24 from 17N-15N.
BUOYs: 60mi SW of Nevis: 070-100@6-10, 5'/5-12sec. Culebra: varying N-E mostly
5-10k, occasionally 15k. 21N/65W: 040@4-8, 6'/8-12sec.
IMAGERY:
Showers & mild squalls probably not exceeding 20-25k are decreasing
significantly in coverage from ABCs thru Dominica & SE Leewards this morning,
but persist NW of this, from LW Leewards & Virgins & PuertoRico to waters N & W
of ABCs. A few showers Windwards, moving NW. Mostly dry from W PuertoRico thru
DomRep.
SYNOPSIS:
--Areas SE of a line from Guadeloupe & Montserrat thru ABCs should remain mostly
dry indefinitely, with steadier E-SE winds which decrease some Thu11-Fri12 as
FrontalTROF makes another run to the S&E (maybe reintroducing a few showers to
SE Leewards Thu11 night & Fri12)...then E-SE Trades rebuild gradually as E
Atlantic RIDGE strengthens. Moderate N swell decreases gradually after
tomorrow.
--Most of Leewards & Virgins & PuertoRico remain very unsettled &
potentially-squally, with shifting winds of varying strength thru Thu11 or even
Fri12...but much more settled weather with mild E-SE Trades Sat13-Mon15, and no
significant N swell by then.
--Mona & DomRep build some from ENE-E thru Fri12, then decrease & clock toward S
over weekend, with L&V possible DomRep Sun14 & Mon15, as large, slow-moving LO
drifts in NW Atlantic.
--Venezuela & ABCs rebuild from E thru tomorrow...moderate some Thu11 afternoon
& Fri12...then rebuilds slightly.
F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad-Dominica & Venezuela & ABCs: mostly dry with only a few isolated
showers & mild squalls with 5k enhanced wind overnights-into-mornings.
Guadeloupe-Antigua-Montserrat: a few isolated showers & squalls to 20-25k
possible anytime, but not much coverage today thru Thu11 afternoon.
Most of Leewards & Virgins & E PuertoRico: periods of showers & squalls, a few
possibly to 20-25k, anytime, but with more coverage tomorrow afternoon thru
Thu11.
W PuertoRico & MonaPassage into E DomRep: a few isolated showers & squalls
possibly to 20-25k anytime, but best chance is tomorrow.
DomRep: mostly dry, except slight chance for a few showers or mild squalls to
20k tomorrow night into Thu11 morning.
WIND (for wind in squalls, see Precip):
Trinidad-Grenadines: 110@14 building to 17k today; 120@16 tomorrow; 110@13
Thu11, backing 090-deg late, 10-13k Fri12; 100@13 Sat13, 15k late.
StVincent-Martinique: 120-130@13 today; 120@12 tomorrow; 110@14 late; 120@13
decreasing to 10k Thu11; 090@7-10 Thu11 night & Fri12; 070-110@12 Fri12 night &
Sat13.
Guadeloupe area: varying E-SSE@7-12 today; ESE@9-12 tomorow; E-SE@6-12 Thu11;
NNE-ESE@6-14 Thu11 night & Fri12; 110@9-12 Sat13.
Most of Leewards: varying NE-SE@5-12 today, 8-12k tomorrow; N-E@6-14 Thu11;
steadier 060@14 Fri12; 070-110@14 decreasing to 7-10k Sat13.
VirginIslands & E PuertoRico: mostly NNE-ENE@10-16 thru Thu11 afternoon, 16-20k
late Thu11, 14-16k Fri12; 080-100@16 decreasing to 10k Sat13.
MonaPassage area: NE-ENE building to 16k today, 15k tomorrow, 14k Thu11 morning,
17k later Thu11; ENE@14 Fri12; E-ESE@5-10 Sat13; ESE-S Sun14 & Mon15.
W DomRep: ENE-E building to 16k today; E-ESE@16 tomorrow & Thu11; ESE@17 Fri12;
ESE-SE@14 Sat13; falling variable under 10k Sun14 & Mon15.
Venezuela: 090-110@16-19 today, 15-18k tomorrow; 070-100@17 decreasing to 15k
Thu11; 060-090@12-15 Fri12, 13-16k Sat13...NIGHTs add 2k / S of 11N subtract
2-3k.
ABCs: 080-110@16 today, 19k tomorrow, 16k tomorrow night & Thu11, 14k Fri12, 13k
Sat13 morning, 16k late.
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