LATEST TROPICAL WX UPDATE AND FORECAST FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS & NE CARIBBEAN
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6:30am QuickScat: ABCs 070-090@15-20 / Venezuela 060-070@10-17, lightest Tortoga / squalls LosTestigos to 080@30 / Trinidad 070@12-15, with only mild squalls to 20k / Windwards 060-080@10-14 / SE Leewards 090@10-12 / NW Leewards 110@8-12 / VirginIslands & PuertoRico 070-090@10-14, except 25k squalls S of Ponce / DomRep 080-110@10-17.
IMAGERY:
Band of scattered showers & mild squalls not exceeding 25k along old FrontalTROF 20N/60W...just NW of StMartin...VirginIslands...S Coasts PuertoRico & DomRep & Haiti...N Coast Jamaica...S of Caymans...cells drifting W. Note this weak TROF is boundary of ENE wind (VirginIslands) vs ESE wind (NW Leewards). Farther S of TROF, Trades are E from SE Leewards S-ward.
Squalls associated with WAVE mostly S&W of Trinidad, thru LosTestigos area to Margarita, but having difficulty penetrating Caribbean waters N&W of these Islands, though clouds blanket Windwards & waters to just E of ABCs.
WAVEs:
NOAA notes WAVEs at 78W, S of 11N, moving W@10-15...52W, S of 11N, moving W@5-10...31W, S of 10N, moving W. I'll agree focused squalls 77W look like WAVE. Squalls LosTestigos may be a "Tail" of the 77W WAVE, or maybe another weak WAVE. A few squalls Trinidad tomorrow are probably NOT due to WAVE 52W...and I have a hard time identifying ANY more influence from WAVEs in E Caribbean thru Fri23 (except thru tomorrow extreme S Part).
SYNOPSIS:
RIDGE 23N-24N thru Mon19 & weakening FrontalTROF along N Caribbean, keep winds light, though, as TROF weakens, ESE Trades should increase some over time tomorrow & Mon19. Meanwhile...S Caribbean (S of about 16N-17N) lies sufficiently-far-South to experience building Trades thru tomorrow night & remaining brisk Mon19.
Tue20 onward...RIDGE gradually lifts N-ward, probably to 26N by Thu22, allowing Trades S of 16N to moderate from Monday's brisk levels...but, as RIDGE moves farther from N Caribbean, ESE Trades back to E & rebuild, beginning tomorrow night & this trend continues thru the week.
SUGGESTIONS:
Vessels ALONG S CARIBBEAN...a bit unsettled thru tomorrow, but not extremely windy...VERY windy late tomorrow into Tue20 morning...moderate & settled weather 2nd half of the week, but maybe too strong for most E-bound vessels.
DomRep-PuertoRico...E-BOUND best today & tomorrow, though today's winds appear stronger than expected...Trades build Mon19, especially late, and remain brisk indefinitely. W-BOUND...better sailing Mon19 night onward, as Trades approach 15k.
F'cst:
Precip:
Trinidad area: 30k squalls seem to have shifted W this morning, but may redevelop tomorrow. Mostly dry with only isolated activity Mon19 onward.
Windwards: Slight risk for isolated squalls to 30k mostly toward Grenada thru tomorrow night...otherwise isolated morning showers & mild squalls with no more than 5-8k enhanced wind.
Leewards: isolated morning showers & mild squalls with no more than 5-8k enhanced wind...but more coverage of this activity possible Tue20 onward.
VirginIslands & PuertoRico: gradual decrease in coverage of 25k squalls along dissipating FrontalTROF thru tomorrow...then similar to Leewards.
DomRep: only isolated showers & mild squalls no more than 5-8k enhanced wind.
Venezuela: periods of isolated-to-scattered showers & squalls, possibly to 30k, thru Mon19 morning, but not much coverage, and offlying Islands along 12N might not see any activity.
ABCs: similar, but isolated activity persists thru Mon19.
WIND:
Windwards (and waters toward Trinidad): 080@13 building to 15k afternoon & tonight, 18k tomorrow, 20k & gusty tomorrow night; 070@20 & gusty Mon19, 16k Tue20; 090@14 Wed21.
Leewards: 110@10 building to 13k afternoon & tonight, 14k tomorrow; 090@17 tomorrow night; 080@18 Mon19, 20k late, 16k Tue20, 20k Tue20 night, 18k Wed21.
VirginIslands: 070@12 this morning, becoming 110@9 afternoon, 10k tonight; 120@13 tomorrow; 100@15 Mon19, 17k late, 16k Tue20; 090@15 Wed21.
DomRep: E Part & MonaPassage ESE-SE@8-10 today into tomorrow, 12k late tomorrow, 10-12k Mon19; 110@14 Mon19 night & Tue20; 100@14 Wed21. W of 69W ADD 3k all times.
Venezuela: 080@15 today, 16k tomorrow, 20k tomorrow night thru Mon19 night, 17k Tue20, 14k Wed21.
ABCs: 090@17-20 today, 20k tomorrow morning, 22k & gusty tomorrow night thru Tue20 morning, 20k later, 17k Wed21.
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