Record Rainfall in the British Virgin Islands in 1998?

Despite predictions of a possible severe drought in the Eastern Caribbean by NOAA and other international research bodies, the British Virgin Islands received around 60" of rain in 1998. This is more than 50% above the long-term average of 39-40" and 1998 was much rainier than any other year for which I have detailed statistics.

Rainfall amounts recorded varied from 57.7" at the Caribbean Weather Center’s weather station on Slaney Hill, to 57.9" at The Office of Disaster Preparedness (ODP) at McNamara in Road Town, 62.2" at Roger & Janna Downing’s weather site high up at Chalwell, 63.9" at Brewers Bay as recorded by Jeff & Jinx Morgan and finally 53.04" (described as pure ocean rain!) reported by veteran rain recorder Rowan Roy at Hodges Creek on the east end of Tortola.

Monthly rainfall totals varied from 1.57" in February to 8.47" in October. In only 2 months did we receive less than 3" of rain. It is interesting to note that had Hurricane George in September delivered the 8-10" that was forecast instead of the 2.5" of rain that actually fell in Road Town, the numbers would have been even higher!

Looking back at 1998, I believe a lot of the excess rainfall can be attributed to the "El Nino" effect which, although beginning to weaken at the surface level in the Eastern Pacific, brought copious amounts of moisture at the mid and upper levels via the tropical and sub-tropical jet streams. This additional upper level moisture, when combined with surface cold fronts, troughs and tropical waves, fell as rain in the E. Caribbean. However, not all of the islands were so fortunate. St. Lucia lost, according to reports, one-third of its banana harvest and eastern Cuba sugar crop was severely affected by semi-drought conditions.

I discussed the year’s rainfall with Rowan Roy. Rowan, like his father before him who was the Agriculture Officer of the BVI, has maintained very accurate statistics covering rainfall for the last 25 years. According to Rowan, the only year that may have had similar rainfall amounts was possibly 1933 when there was severe flooding on parts of Tortola and a large and very ancient tamarind tree was washed away in Huntums Ghut!

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This table presents named storms and hurricanes passing within 75 miles of Road Town, the capital of the BVI during the years 1950-1997. Despite perhaps an impression to the contrary, have been only 11 named storms (sustained winds speeds in excess 33 knots or 40 mph) during this period of which only 6 were hurricanes (sustained wind speeds in excess of 63 knots or 75 mph) during the last 47 years that have affected the BVI. Two of these, Luis and Marilyn, occurred in 1995, the second most active year on record in the Atlantic Basin. Click on Hurricanes for more detailed information.